Turkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri AS (TKC)

On our desk, the consensus around Turkcell (TKC) centers on its incredible resilience in posting real revenue growth for consecutive quarters under severe hyperinflation. Management's discipline in maintaining 2026 guidance—targeting 5-7% real revenue growth and a 40-42% EBITDA margin—has kept institutional interest firm, despite the stock pulling back slightly to around $5.43. Analysts maintain a generally bullish average 12-month price target near $7.49, reflecting faith in their strategic pivots like DBS and the recent 5G rollout.

When analyzing operational metrics for TKC, you have to appreciate the quality of their subscriber additions. Their mobile base has surpassed 40 million, with postpaid additions accelerating and churn dropping to an impressive 1.6%. Market rationalization has clearly favored dominant players, as seen in lower Mobile Number Portability volumes. However, Techfin performance remains uneven—Paycell is expanding its top line but seeing margin pressure from POS solutions, while Financell dropped 12% YoY due to tighter credit conditions.

Looking at the balance sheet risks, our quant models flag the massive jump in first-half CapEx to TRY 106.8 billion, driven primarily by the USD 1.2 billion 5G license and ongoing network investments. While net debt to EBITDA remains manageable at 0.36x with total consolidated debt hitting TRY 212.1 billion, the depreciation expenses from these 5G assets are heavily pressuring bottom-line profitability and EBIT, which fell 18.9% in Q2. FX volatility remains an unignorable lingering overhang.